I believe I have figured it out, the leak was a result of capillary attraction also referred to as wicking. the water built up over time, atop the plastic vapor barrier and failed all at once. Thankfully the last 30 days were relatively dry (5 days of rain) and only rained 2 1/2 ", I have seen 25-35"+ in 30 days, several times over the years. If it wasn't only a 2 hour ride to the desert, I would have bugged out of here a long time ago.