I'm no scientist or carb pro, but that was my theory. You figure if your setup is right on the line in the peak of summer, a 20+/- degree difference in temperature could push you over the edge. Which sounds about right seeing the numbers the calculator is coming up with vs. your current setup.
Dont over look that allen screw tip from moe. Its virtually imposible to work on these carbs with those stock philips screws, they strip really easily.