If it does turn out to be an igniter, Triumph gave me one for my 2005 / 30,000 mile Speedmaster in Spring of '09. I even did the freebie over the phone with a dealer 300 miles away from me. (I have no local or other Triumph dealership relation, as I bought the bike used near the VT / Canadian border.)
A dealer may try to sell you an igniter for a discounted $500. If that happens, ask the dealer to put it through to Triumph as a "goodwill claim." The key phrase is apparently "goodwill claim." I've heard two separate dealers use that term with regard to out of warranty issues.
The fact that we have to ask for the semi-secret goodwill claim is another story, but I won't go there. I'm hoping I can get 30,000 miles out of the new igniter before I go madman again, and by then they might only cost $190.