FWIW, my wife and I refinanced in January this year, and the appraisal didn't even mention the 2 houses down the street from us with the exact same floor plans that were foreclosures and sold for almost the same price we paid for ours back in 1999. And both those houses were bought in the last 2-3 months. Instead the appraiser only listed houses that sold under normal situations in the last 6 months.
When the mortgage lender asked me what I thought my house was worth, I said about $140k, but the appraisal came in at $160k. So you might be surprised like I was when the appraisal comes in, but I understand about not wanting to waste $200 on that. Oh, and since the housing bubble affected various areas of the country to different degrees, you should take all of what's said with a grain of salt, including me.
