I dont know if I buy the explanations of a cartel, it is merely propaganda in a major degree. That isnt to say that specualtion has also greatly tainted the pricing, OPEC can produce at much higher volume than it does, and the prices will be effected.
The worldwide demand will continue to grow, India will surpass China economically within 20 years, we are seeing their growth add to the oil demand right now. As a free people, they have much more potential to expand.
As for supply, the massive reserves discovered in Brazil will only have price effect downward if demand diminishes ( not likely ), but add in new reserves brought online, and it can greatly help, collectively ( as I stated earlier, we have substantial reserves we are not going after. Former Senator John Breaux D-LA has stated this quite clearly in various public formats ) making a possible impact on either bringing prices down, or stabilizing them. Of course, there may be immense reserves still not found, or like it has been theorized, oil may be a by product of inner workings of the planet, and not fossil by products ( it would be interesting if this one is ever proven true ). Add in the comment mentioned in another's post about refining capacity, and it also make a major impact on supply. We need to build more (why dont we?) to lessen our dependence on others, and to reduce costs. Then, we need to build more electric capacity( especially nuclear ), as it would allow the use of plus in vehicles to a larger degree( they would be best utilized in urban/low mileage uses ). At present, to plug in millions of cars would just crap out the power grid (can you imagine the black out potential during A/C season? ).
